My evidence-based prediction of the Grand National results had so many positive comments. I’ve had people I don’t know on Twitter ask how I’d got on and people retweeting my original blog, saying they liked the idea. Friends thought it was a cool plan too and some even took my advice. BBC Radio York were very impressed with my dedication to the cause as well. 16.15 on Saturday and I sat down to watch the race with my family, feeling rather nervous. You can practically see the tension in my eyes.
So how did I do? Well out of the 10 I picked, one fell and one was bought down. Yes, I admit my system has its flaws. But the other 8 finished. And they finished 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, 7th, 12th, 14th and 17th. That’s right, I predicted 5 of the top 7 placed horses!! I know what you’re thinking. Prove it, Buckley! Well I just will. I know it looks weird on 2 slips. Why didn’t I put them all on one, I hear you ask? Well, if you read the original blog, I was only going to bet on 8 horses. But I simply couldn’t rule out the other two, so they ended up on another betting slip with the horses the rest of my family had chosen. Note Santa’s Son on the righthand slip- my Dad’s choice. This horse was actually winning for part of the race and at 150-1, the Milkybars would’ve been on him.
I didn’t win a lot of money, that wasn’t really the point. If anyone tells you scientists are rolling in it then they’re either very lucky or they’re telling porkies. I forked out £20 of my own money on this little escapade but my winnings totalled £31.50. I know some Bookmakers were paying out on places 1 to 5. Betfred, the big meanies, didn’t. But if they had, I’d have almost doubled my money. A victory for evidence-based prediction!
It took up a whole evening to profile the past winners and cross reference them with the 40 runners in the 2011 race, but I like doing random stuff like this. Obviously, I’d have to replicate my results next year to have any sort of scientific credence but currently, I’m happy with my 100 % success rate. But it’s not in my nature to leave stuff like this alone. I’m currently working out the differences between the horses that finished in the top 5 and those that didn’t. What features did they possess that made them winners?
It was an interesting experience and a world I only dipped my toe into. So would I do it again? Definitely!